Everyone’s talking about “Black Swan” for Best Picture in the blogosphere. Their opinion, which I totally agree with, is that a nomination for Darren Aronofsky’s latest feature would be the first true step forward for the Academy in years. They have nominated movies like “Avatar” and “The Blind Side” and “District 9” before; out of the ordinary is not the same as making full progression.
But alas, when I published my two cents on “Black Swan” to kick off Oscar Moment Week in September, I focused more on the movie’s surest bet for a nomination, Natalie Portman. She’s all but a lock to be nominated. The big question is can 29-year-old Portman win?
The results were definitive. 2/3 of voters said they expected Portman to win Best Actress, while the other third remained skeptical. I love Natalie Portman and can’t wait to see this movie; sight unseen, she is who I want to win.
Marshall and the Movies 
It would be nice to see, but Black Swan will probably be “too genre-y” for the Academy.
I don’t see Portman winning, even if the performance is deserving. With other veterans in the field, I can’t see the Academy going for a younger actress in a – like Fitz said – “genre-y” film.